The biggest U.S. banks begin reporting first-quarter 2026 earnings today, with Goldman Sachs leading off on Monday and JPMorgan Chase following on Tuesday. The season arrives at a uniquely volatile moment: six weeks into the Iran war, with oil above $100, new tariffs in play, and consumer confidence at its lowest point since 1952.
What to expect from Goldman Sachs
Goldman is expected to report revenues of approximately $16.9 billion for Q1 2026 — a 12 percent increase from the prior-year quarter. The driver: investment banking and advisory fees, which have surged as M&A activity rebounds from the 2023-2024 drought. Analysts describe it as the return of the “fee machine” — Goldman’s traditional profit engine that was sidelined by the rate-hike cycle.
JPMorgan: the one everyone’s watching
Wall Street expects JPMorgan to report earnings per share between $5.38 and $5.50, a 7 percent rise, on projected revenue of approximately $48.5 billion. The bank has guided for net interest income of around $104.5 billion for 2026 — essentially flat — but investment banking fees are expected to jump by as much as 18 percent year-over-year.
The real focus will be on CEO Jamie Dimon’s commentary. Dimon has been vocal about the risks posed by the Iran war, energy-driven inflation, private credit exposure, and AI-linked job displacement. His forward guidance will set the tone for the rest of earnings season.
The pivot from NII to fees
Q1 2026 marks a historic pivot for Wall Street. After two years where net interest income drove profits — as banks benefited from the rate-hike cycle — the baton is passing back to investment banking fees and trading revenue. Both Goldman and JPMorgan are expected to show that their fee-generating businesses are firing on all cylinders, even as the macro backdrop deteriorates.
The question is whether strong deal activity can outweigh the rising loan loss reserves that war-time economic uncertainty demands.
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