Wall Street’s Q1 earnings heaviest day lands Tuesday. Eleven major names report — testing whether the bull thesis that drove the S&P 500 to all-time highs last week survives contact with Monday’s Iran-driven selloff and the actual Q1 numbers.
The Full Tuesday Roster
- UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — healthcare
- GE Aerospace (GE) — aviation engines and defense
- RTX (RTX) — defense and aerospace
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) — defense
- Danaher (DHR) — diagnostics and industrial
- Northrop Grumman (NOC) — defense
- 3M (MMM) — industrials
- D.R. Horton (DHI) — housing
- Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) — medtech
- Capital One (COF) — consumer credit
- United Airlines (UAL) — airline demand
- Chubb (CB) — P&C insurance
The Five Biggest Setups
- UnitedHealth — the medical cost ratio is the single line. Anything above 85 percent is a red flag for the sector.
- GE Aerospace — engine aftermarket revenue + LEAP deliveries. Watch for Iran-linked airline route commentary.
- RTX — Q1 defense awards given Middle East escalation. Book-to-bill >1.2 would confirm a structural defense lift.
- United Airlines — jet fuel pass-through is the tell given Hormuz pressure. A guidance cut here would hit the whole US airline complex.
- 3M — industrial demand read + tariff absorption commentary. Management tone matters as much as the number.
What Wall Street Needs to See
- Margin resilience — S&P 500 blended margin is at a cycle high of 12.8 percent and needs to hold
- Full-year 2026 guidance RAISES (not holds) across at least half the reporters
- Capital plan commentary — any AI-capex slowdown signal would hurt more than any individual miss
What Could Sink It
Three landmines in one day:
- UnitedHealth with an MCR above 85 percent
- United Airlines pre-announcing a fuel-pass-through hit
- 3M cutting Q2 guidance on tariff absorption
Any two of the three and the systematic-long-position unwind that began Monday becomes a full-blown de-grossing — which would take the S&P 500 back below 5,400 in a session.
The Iran Overlay
Defense names (RTX, Lockheed, Northrop) will field every Iran question on the call. Management commentary is likely to converge around “we are seeing increased customer engagement” without quantifying — that is the acceptable bull read. If even one name explicitly flags elevated Q2 order books, the defense complex rallies hard. If all three avoid the question, the sector drifts.
Source: Earnings Whispers / FactSet / CNBC
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