Mahama Pledges to Lock In Single-Digit Inflation — First Time Since 2013

President John Dramani Mahama has pledged to entrench single-digit inflation as the new normal for Ghana’s economy — a target the country has not sustainably held since 2013. Headline inflation fell to 3.2 percent in the most recent read, the lowest since 2021.

“Single digits must not be a moment — it must be the floor we defend,” Mahama said at a town-hall segment of the Northern Region tour. “We did it through discipline. We will hold it through discipline.”

The Disinflation Path

Ghana’s inflation journey over the last four years:

October 2022: 40.4% (the debt-crisis peak)
December 2023: 23.2%
December 2024: 17.6%
December 2025: 8.1%
March 2026: 3.2%

The Bank of Ghana’s inflation target band is 8 percent ±2 — so current inflation is materially below the lower bound, giving the monetary authority room to recalibrate as external conditions stabilise.

The Policy Mix

Four forces have driven the fall:

Restrictive monetary policy — the policy rate at 23 percent is meaningfully above headline inflation
Fiscal consolidation under the IMF Extended Credit Facility — deficit targets being met
Cedi stability — the currency posted its best Q1 in five years, removing imported inflation pressure
Food price normalisation — the bumper harvest and improving distribution infrastructure

The Risks Ahead

Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson flagged three risks that could undo the disinflation if not managed:

A collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire this week pushing oil to US$120/bbl — a Ghana fuel-import shock
A premature loosening of monetary policy ahead of 2028
Fiscal slippage if domestic political pressure overrides the IMF programme fiscal targets

The Forson Commitment

Forson reaffirmed that the Bank of Ghana and Ministry of Finance will continue operating as if the inflation ceiling is not 10 percent but 6 percent — a deliberately tighter internal anchor to guard against the 8 percent band drift that has historically re-accelerated inflation.

“The last time Ghana held single digits for three consecutive years was 2011–2013,” Forson said. “We intend to beat that.”

Source: Ministry of Finance / Ghana Statistical Service / Bank of Ghana