S&P 500 and Nasdaq Roar to All-Time Highs — Wall Street Rides Hormuz Reopening Rumour, Big-Tech Earnings in the Frame

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied to all-time highs not seen since January last week, carrying into Monday’s open, as Wall Street priced growing hopes that the US–Iran war ends and as earnings season revs up with the biggest names still to report.

The trigger was a midweek headline that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire — a report that sent crude briefly back below US$78 a barrel before Iran’s subsequent reversal on Saturday re-closed the Strait and sent oil back above US$103.

Index Moves

S&P 500: fresh all-time high, up ~2.8% on the week
Nasdaq Composite: fresh all-time high, up ~3.6% on the week
Dow Jones: within 0.4% of its own record
Volatility Index (VIX) dropped below 14 intraweek before snapping back above 18 on the Saturday Hormuz reversal

Why the Bulls Are in Charge

Four drivers are stacked on top of each other:

Ceasefire optimism — a durable US–Iran accord is worth roughly 5 to 8 S&P index points per resolved tail risk, sell-side models suggest
Earnings momentum — S&P 500 Q1 blended growth is tracking 12.5% YoY with 78% of the 32 companies reported so far beating
Liquidity — the Fed’s recent pause is being priced by equity markets as an implicit floor
AI capex — the Big Tech capital plans are lifting semiconductors, data centre REITs, and power equipment

The Q1 Earnings Super Week

Next week brings the highest-stakes earnings calendar of the season. In one trading week, investors get prints from:

Tesla — Wednesday after close
IBM — Wednesday
Boeing — Wednesday
Lockheed Martin and RTX — defence names
United Airlines — airline demand read
Lam Research — semiconductor equipment
GE Vernova — AI power and grid
Blackstone — alternatives

The Warning Light

The Saturday Hormuz reversal is a reminder that the week’s gains were built on a peace trade that is not yet signed. If the April 21 ceasefire expires without extension, the VIX could re-expand sharply and the ATH prints risk being marked as a near-term top rather than a breakout. Hedge-fund positioning data for the week through Friday suggests systematic funds are already aggressively long — a fuel for extension, but also kindling for a snap unwind.