S&P 500 Hits New All-Time Intraday High On Iran Peace Hopes — Oil Drops 3% to Below $92

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high on Thursday as oil prices fell for another day, buoyed by hopes that the United States and Iran were closing in on a memo to end the war. The index rose 0.15% (+11.14 points); the Nasdaq added 0.51% (+130.98 points); the Dow slipped 0.05% (−25.13 points). WTI crude fell 3% to above $91 per barrel. 579 earnings reports landed on the day.

The Numbers

  • S&P 500: +0.15% (+11.14 pts) — new intraday all-time high
  • Nasdaq Composite: +0.51% (+130.98 pts)
  • Dow: −0.05% (−25.13 pts)
  • WTI crude: −3% to ~$91/barrel
  • Initial jobless claims: 200,000 — below 206,000 consensus, +10,000 vs prior week

What Drove The Move

  • Iran-US war-end memo hopes — Iran reply expected Thursday
  • Strait of Hormuz “safe passage possible” language from IRGC Navy
  • Oil collapse easing inflation read for the next CPI print
  • Earnings outperformance — “S&P 500 is not just beating expectations, it’s blowing them up”

Earnings Day Highlights

  • 579 reports on Thursday
  • Morning: McDonald’s, Unity, Datadog, VST, Celsius, Peloton, Shell
  • Fortinet +22% after lifting full-year billings guidance (separate story today)
  • DoorDash +1%+ on rosy Q2 orders guidance
  • Super Micro Computer followed Wednesday’s surge on AI data centre demand

Sector Rotation

  • Tech, communication services, consumer discretionary led
  • Energy lagged (WTI -3%)
  • Defensives mixed
  • Small caps held up — Russell 2000 holding May highs

Macro Read

  • Fed cut path expectations stable — oil cool helps the doves
  • Risk-on tape ignores the Beirut strike (separate story today) for now
  • VIX easing further; risk premium compressing
  • Friday’s jobs report still ahead — that’s the next macro pivot

The Caveat

Markets that hit fresh records during active diplomacy are vulnerable to a single headline reversal. Iran’s reply Thursday and any Lebanon spillover from the Beirut strike are the immediate downside risks.

What Comes Next

  • Iran formal reply tonight or Friday morning
  • Friday non-farm payrolls — biggest macro catalyst of the week
  • Earnings tail through next week
  • Watch FX — DXY weakness if oil holds the lower range

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