The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high on Thursday as oil prices fell for another day, buoyed by hopes that the United States and Iran were closing in on a memo to end the war. The index rose 0.15% (+11.14 points); the Nasdaq added 0.51% (+130.98 points); the Dow slipped 0.05% (−25.13 points). WTI crude fell 3% to above $91 per barrel. 579 earnings reports landed on the day.
The Numbers
- S&P 500: +0.15% (+11.14 pts) — new intraday all-time high
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.51% (+130.98 pts)
- Dow: −0.05% (−25.13 pts)
- WTI crude: −3% to ~$91/barrel
- Initial jobless claims: 200,000 — below 206,000 consensus, +10,000 vs prior week
What Drove The Move
- Iran-US war-end memo hopes — Iran reply expected Thursday
- Strait of Hormuz “safe passage possible” language from IRGC Navy
- Oil collapse easing inflation read for the next CPI print
- Earnings outperformance — “S&P 500 is not just beating expectations, it’s blowing them up”
Earnings Day Highlights
- 579 reports on Thursday
- Morning: McDonald’s, Unity, Datadog, VST, Celsius, Peloton, Shell
- Fortinet +22% after lifting full-year billings guidance (separate story today)
- DoorDash +1%+ on rosy Q2 orders guidance
- Super Micro Computer followed Wednesday’s surge on AI data centre demand
Sector Rotation
- Tech, communication services, consumer discretionary led
- Energy lagged (WTI -3%)
- Defensives mixed
- Small caps held up — Russell 2000 holding May highs
Macro Read
- Fed cut path expectations stable — oil cool helps the doves
- Risk-on tape ignores the Beirut strike (separate story today) for now
- VIX easing further; risk premium compressing
- Friday’s jobs report still ahead — that’s the next macro pivot
The Caveat
Markets that hit fresh records during active diplomacy are vulnerable to a single headline reversal. Iran’s reply Thursday and any Lebanon spillover from the Beirut strike are the immediate downside risks.
What Comes Next
- Iran formal reply tonight or Friday morning
- Friday non-farm payrolls — biggest macro catalyst of the week
- Earnings tail through next week
- Watch FX — DXY weakness if oil holds the lower range
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