The six biggest US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America — all report first-quarter earnings next week in what analysts are calling the most consequential bank reporting week since the March 2023 regional bank crisis. Netflix, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson also report, but the banks will set the tone for the entire Q1 season.
Three Questions Analysts Are Watching
First, loan loss provisions: the April 47.6 consumer sentiment reading combined with rising credit card delinquencies suggests provisions could move materially higher. Second, trading revenue: the Iran war drove a volatility spike that should have been profitable for trading desks, but geopolitical shocks don’t always convert cleanly into P&L. Third, dealmaking: M&A activity collapsed in Q1 as tariff uncertainty paralysed boardrooms, hitting Goldman and Morgan Stanley hardest.
JPMorgan Sets the Tone
JPMorgan reports first, before the Tuesday open. Jamie Dimon’s commentary on the state of the US consumer, the Iran war, and tariff policy has become the single most-read bank earnings call on Wall Street, typically moving markets within minutes. Dimon has been unusually hawkish in recent weeks, publicly warning that the risks of a shallow recession beginning in Q3 2026 have risen materially.
Why This Matters Beyond the Banks
Q1 2026 earnings season is landing into a market that has given back most of its year-to-date gains. The S&P 500 is roughly flat for the year. The Dow turned positive only in Thursday’s session. If the banks surprise to the upside, it could trigger a material equity rotation into financials. If they miss — especially on credit or trading — it would confirm the bear case that the consumer-sentiment crash of April is about to show up in the hard data.
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