Iran To Reply To US Proposal On War-End Memo — Strait of Hormuz Safe Passage ‘Possible’

Iran is expected to hand mediators its reply on Thursday on a US proposal to end the war, with both sides described as moving toward a memorandum. President Donald Trump said the United States had “very good talks” with Iran in the past 24 hours. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has separately said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is possible under “new procedures.”

Where Negotiations Stand

  • Iran’s reply expected via mediators — Thursday delivery
  • Trump: “very good talks” in the last 24 hours
  • Both sides described by sources as moving toward a memo ending the war
  • This is the closest the parties have come to a written framework since hostilities resumed

The Strait of Hormuz Signal

  • IRGC Navy: safe passage possible under “new procedures”
  • Direct climb-down from earlier closure threats
  • Energy markets reading the statement as a de-escalation tone-setter
  • “New procedures” undefined — likely vessel-by-vessel notification or convoy escort

The Diplomatic Choreography

  • Marco Rubio arrived in Rome for two-day Italy + Vatican visit — meeting Pope Leo XIV
  • Goal: ease Washington–Vatican tension and align the moral framing on the talks
  • Mediator role being shared across Gulf intermediaries + the Vatican channel
  • Iran 14-point peace proposal still on the table as backdrop

Markets Read

  • Oil prices fell again Thursday — WTI dropped 3% to ~$91
  • S&P 500 hit a fresh intraday all-time high
  • Risk-on rally driven explicitly by Iran-deal hopes
  • Insurance + tanker rates through the Gulf already easing

The Caveats

  • Iranian hardliners can still block ratification
  • Internal Iranian politics — parliamentary commentary will be the early signal
  • Israel position on any framework not yet publicly aligned
  • One incident at sea could collapse the choreography overnight

What Comes Next

  • Iran’s formal reply expected by close of Thursday
  • Memo language to be public if signed; secret addenda likely on enrichment + sanctions
  • Watch the Strait of Hormuz traffic over the weekend as the test
  • Trump statement timing — likely from the Oval Office or Truth Social on receipt

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